Two large questions about Gregg Berhalter's USMNT before Football World Cup

On Nov. 21, barely more than one month from now, the U.S. men's national team will play their first Football World Cup game in nearly 8½ years. Thank goodness. More than 1,600 days passed between when the Americans were eliminated from the World Cup requirement in 2018 and when they clinched this time around, and now more than 200 days have passed since the requirement. After the longest wait ever between World Cups, it's just about here. Ready or not?

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Two large questions about Gregg Berhalter’s USMNT.

National team coaches are signed with World Cup cycles in mind, and U.S. manager Gregg Berhalter's contract is arranged to end in the weeks after the tournament in Qatar. His first year was spent fiddling with lineups and receiving looks at as many players as possible, and his second was almost nonexistent due to COVID stoppages. His third was a roller coaster of wounds, a trio of wins over Mexico, and a bumpy and trying early crawl through qualification.

His fourth included requirement and summer (and early fall) of listlessness. Optimism has waxed and waned, as has faith in the job Berhalter is doing. But as we enter the parting stage of this eight-year drought, here are four queries I still have about Berhalter, his team, and the massive tournament ahead.

(1)How have the U.S. done under Berhalter?

To start answering that question, let's step back and answer a wider question: How has the U.S. done, period? The national team is now 16th in the FIFA rankings and 24th in the more predictive ratings at EloRatings.net. Here's a quick chart of how that likens to its year-end rankings going back to 1994, the year the U.S. presented the Qatar World Cup.

Seeing the country's interest in soccer has grown, and considering its investment in soccer has grown -- perhaps most notably through the increased asset in MLS academies and leagues below MLS -- the U.S. hasn't bettered its overall standing in world soccer since its initial post-1994 surge. Its golden era in both sets of ratings began in about 2000, picked up steam in 2002 and petered out around 2005. Since then, the U.S. has been engrossed in almost identical cycles.

The U.S. averaged a year-end ranking of 13th in the two ratings above in 2005, but they had fallen to an average of 28th the next year when Bruce Arena's decision-making contract was allowed to expire. Three years later, in 2009, they were back to an average of 16th under Bob Bradley, but they had fallen to an average of 35th two years when he was fired in 2011.

These cycles continued under Jurgen Klinsmann:

They were back to within sniffing coldness of the top 10 in 2013 but had fallen back into the 30s when he was fired in 2016. And after a couple of stagnant years at the start of the Berhalter era -- thanks in part to a lack of chances during the COVID year of 2020 -- they had surged right back to the high teens in 2021 before slipping to a present average of 20th.

We head into the Football World Cup, then, at a massive pivot point. A solid presentation at the World Cup* would likely bump the U.S. back up and mark the first time since 2004-05 that they averaged a ranking in the teens at the end of two successive years. With so much of the core roster still years from reaching its peak, this would paint a hopeful picture of the years ahead. To know more about USA Vs Wales Tickets click here.

(1)How have the U.S. done under Berhalter?

 How would we define a "solid" showing, by the way? Seeing that EloRatings.net rates the U.S. (24th), Iran (21st), and Wales (26th) almost equally at the instant, "solid" would probably require advancement to the knockout rounds and the evasion of a blowout against England and/or a round-of-16 opponent. A lesser showing in Qatar, meanwhile, would mean that the Berhalter era's route would mirror that of both the Klinsmann and Bradley eras in a lot of ways.

So let's go back to the original question:

How has Berhalter done thus far? The same as just about any recent U.S. coach, it seems. But based on how Americans have been executed at the club level, one could make the case that he's achieved about the same results with a more talented,

 If less knowledgeable, squad. When the U.S. reached the World Cup quarterfinals, they did so with a squad containing seven players who were playing for a team in one of Europe's big five leagues. This year's World Cup squad will have 12-14 such players.

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Granted, some of the team's most talented players have writhed with injury; here's where I once again note that Christian Pulisic, Giovanni Reyna, Weston McKennie, Tyler Adams, and Sergio Dest have played together in the same U.S. match just once -- ever. But with a greater depth of choices, a three-and-out arrival at the World Cup -- especially with what might be a reasonably healthy squad -- would still reflect poorly on Berhalter's overall presentation.

Is it fair that after four years and 56 matches in charge, Berhalter will be assessed almost entirely by a three- to five-match swing at the end of the quarter-year? Almost certainly. Is that way it works in international soccer? Absolutely. Put an additional way, the World Cup is the final exam at the end of the semester.

(2)Who gets the final eight (or so) spots?

You're allowed to take 26 players to Qatar Football World Cup. Based on who's now healthy and whom Berhalter has seemingly favored over the past year or so, we can safely guess about 18 of those names (listed alphabetically by position). To know more about England Vs USA Tickets click here.

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Goalkeepers: Zack Steffen (Middlesbrough) and Matt Turner (Arsenal)

Center-backs: Aaron Long (New York Red Bulls), Chris Richards (Crystal Palace), and Walker Zimmerman (Nashville SC)

Fullbacks: Sergio Dest (AC Milan), Antonee Robinson (Fulham) and DeAndre Yedlin (Inter Miami)

Midfielders: Kellyn Acosta (LAFC), Tyler Adams (Leeds United), Luca de la Torre (Celta Vigo), Weston McKennie (Juventus), and Yunus Musah (Valencia)

Forwards:

 Brenden Aaronson (Leeds United), Jesus Ferreira (FC Dallas), Christian Pulisic (Chelsea), Gio Reyna (Borussia Dortmund), and Tim Weah (Lille)

Berhalter could spring an astonishment based on club form -- which could negatively impact someone like de la Torre, who has played just 38 minutes for Celta Vigo this season, or Dest, who's writhed since moving to Milan from Barcelona over the summer -- but it would certainly be a surprise.

Unless Long's iffy presentations in September friendlies have given him pause, Berhalter has made his preferences pretty clear at this point. And aside from center-back Miles Robinson, whose unfortunate Achilles injury in May removed him from thought after he had all but locked a starting spot for the U.S., it appears that despite a run of recent minor wounds, all of his other first-choice players would be currently available if the Qatar Football World Cup began today.

(Knock on wood, or perform your necessary jinx-prevention exercises here.)

So that leaves eight other players to select: a third goalkeeper, plus probably whichever one or two players in each of the other location categories above. Based once again on whom Berhalter has seemingly taken the hardest look at over the past year or so, here are estimated lists of likely candidates for those final spots.

Zack Steffen (Middlesbrough)

Goalkeepers: 

Ethan Horvath (Luton Town) or Sean Johnson (NYC FC).

Since the start of 2021, these are the only two other keepers to play for Berhalter besides Turner and Steffen.

Center-back: Cameron Carter-Vickers (Celtic), Mark McKenzie (Genk), Erik Palmer-Brown (Troyes), or James Sands (Rangers)

Palmer-Brown and McKenzie took part in the last international window, and Carter-Vickers would have if not for the wound. Sands has played six times for the U.S. since the start of 2021 and is doing well for the Rangers. John Brooks has also played six times for Berhalter in that span, but appears to be on the outs and has not seen much playing time since signing with Benfica.

Fullback: George Bello (Arminia Bielefeld), Reggie Cannon (Boavista), Shaq Moore (Nashville SC), Joe Scally (Borussia Monchengladbach), Sam Vines (Royal Antwerp)

This unit is a bit of a mystery. Robinson, Yedlin, and probably Dest are probably no-brainers, but at least one more fullback will go to Qatar Football World Cup. Cannon is a Berhalter favorite but is still working his way back from a groin wound that knocked him out of September friendlies. Scally is 19 and already in his second season preliminary for a Bundesliga squad; he would seem like a no-brainer, but Berhalter has played him only three times.

Midfield:

Gianluca Busio (Venezia), Johnny Cardoso (Internacional), Sebastian Lletget (Dallas), Malik Tillman (Rangers), Cristian Roldan (Seattle Sounders) or Jackson Yueill (San Jose)

With Roldan also battling a groin wound (he's healthy now), Berhalter was able to give longer looks to Cardoso and Tillman, both of whom have made four arrivals for the U.S., in September's international window. Busio seemed on his way to locking up a spot a year ago but has made only one arrival in the last 13 U.S. matches.

Forward: Paul Arriola (FC Dallas), Ricardo Pepi (Groningen), Jordan Morris (Seattle Sounders), Jordan Pefok (Union Berlin), Joshua Sargent (Norwich City), Haji Wright (Antalyaspor), Gyasi Zardes (Colorado Rapids)

Here's where Berhalter's favorites have particularly run counter to form and stats. He invited Pepi to September camp despite a long run of poor form, and in 59 minutes against Saudi Arabia, Pepi managed just 13 touches and no shots.

 He also asked Sargent at the 22-year-old's first sign of improved form in the English second tier; Sargent played 45 minutes against Saudi Arabia with 15 touches and no shots. Gunfire tends to be an important characteristic for a forward and outdoor of Ferreira, Berhalter has struggled to find someone who consistently efforts them.

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Bonagura: Projecting the USMNT roster

It would surprise no one if Berhalter designated two or so from a pool of Pepi, Sargent, and veterans Arriola and Morris. They are clear on who he's most comfortable with at this point, for healthier or worse. But if the club form substances, then Pefok or Wright should be garnering longer looks than they have received of late.

Peek has scored three goals with four assists in nine competitions for Bundesliga-leading Union Berlin; he might not provide the link-up play Berhalter wants from his center-forwards, but he is part of what might be the best counter-attacking unit in Europe at the instant, and it seems that might be a good asset to have on your bench, at the very least. Wright, meanwhile, has scored seven goals in nine Turkish Super Lig competitions after scoring 14 last season, but he's seen only 119 minutes in a U.S. shirt.

While we're talking about in-form scorers,

One would have also thought the 24-year-old Brandon Vazquez would have gotten a lengthier look by now. Vazquez scored 19 goals during FC Cincinnati's dramatic rise in MLS this season, but Berhalter has yet to give him an arrival. (He isn't cap-tied and is also eligible to play for Mexico.)

Berhalter talks a lot about wanting to select the right team instead of what might simply be the most talented team. That can make clear sense, but only if you're not sacrificing quality in service of an identity that hasn't unavoidably taken hold after four years.

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